Piratefly

When to book flights: what 3,362,286 real fares say

We tracked the same flights at different times before departure, 2026-06-14 to 2026-10-18, across 83,896 routes. Updated 2026-10-19. Free to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).

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Key findings

How much more you pay vs. the cheapest moment, by how early you book
Average premium over the same flight's lowest observed fare · 56,350 flights
0–3 days before departure: +45.6% average, +21.5% median (10924 flights) +45.6% 0–3d 4–7 days before departure: +40.5% average, +18.3% median (22279 flights) +40.5% 4–7d 1–2 weeks before departure: +33% average, +13.6% median (28680 flights) +33% 1–2w 2–3 weeks before departure: +26% average, +9.6% median (25535 flights) +26% 2–3w 3–4 weeks before departure: +20.4% average, +6.3% median (27844 flights) +20.4% 3–4w 1–1.5 months before departure: +17.3% average, +4.1% median (34872 flights) +17.3% 1–1.5m 1.5–2 months before departure: +18.7% average, +4.2% median (26754 flights) +18.7% 1.5–2m 2–3 months before departure: +25% average, +8.3% median (26312 flights) +25% 2–3m
Source: Piratefly flight price research · 3,362,286 fares observed 2026-06-14 → 2026-10-18 · CC BY 4.0

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Which departure day costs more
Fare vs. the median of the same route, by day of departure
Monday: 4.9% vs route median (4612 flights) +4.9% Mon Tuesday: 3% vs route median (5618 flights) +3% Tue Wednesday: 2.2% vs route median (5703 flights) +2.2% Wed Thursday: 5.1% vs route median (5004 flights) +5.1% Thu Friday: 10.3% vs route median (4071 flights) +10.3% Fri Saturday: 8.3% vs route median (4315 flights) +8.3% Sat Sunday: 9.9% vs route median (3770 flights) +9.9% Sun
Source: Piratefly flight price research · 3,362,286 fares observed 2026-06-14 → 2026-10-18 · CC BY 4.0

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Cheapest cities to fly to this winter
Median one-way fare, departures from 2026-11-01, 238 cities ranked
Dubrave Gornje Dubrave Gornje, Bosnia and Herzegovina: median €17, 10th percentile €8 (208 fares from 12 airports) €17 Charlestown Charlestown, Ireland: median €21, 10th percentile €16 (176 fares from 7 airports) €21 Milan Milan, Italy: median €28, 10th percentile €16 (39206 fares from 179 airports) €28 London London, United Kingdom: median €28, 10th percentile €17 (21622 fares from 181 airports) €28 Palermo Palermo, Italy: median €29, 10th percentile €15 (4474 fares from 101 airports) €29 Catania Catania, Italy: median €30, 10th percentile €16 (3721 fares from 86 airports) €30 Ibiza Ibiza, Spain: median €30, 10th percentile €14 (1168 fares from 51 airports) €30 Tirana Tirana, Albania: median €30, 10th percentile €15 (4604 fares from 107 airports) €30 Venice Venice, Italy: median €31, 10th percentile €17 (9428 fares from 139 airports) €31 Valletta Valletta, Malta: median €31, 10th percentile €16 (4020 fares from 106 airports) €31 Reggio Calabria Reggio Calabria, Italy: median €31, 10th percentile €16 (362 fares from 23 airports) €31 Milan Bergamo Milan Bergamo, Italy: median €32, 10th percentile €21 (941 fares from 7 airports) €32
Source: Piratefly flight price research · 3,362,286 fares observed 2026-06-14 → 2026-10-18 · CC BY 4.0

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Piratefly Fare Index (monthly)
Chain-linked, 2026-08 = 100 · European flights, next 60 days
2026-08: index 100, median fare €106.5 (10546 routes) 100 2026-08 2026-09: index 96.9, median fare €101 (18911 routes) 96.9 2026-09 2026-10: index 96.9, median fare €164 (57406 routes), month in progress 96.9 2026-10*
Source: Piratefly flight price research · 3,362,286 fares observed 2026-06-14 → 2026-10-18 · CC BY 4.0

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Get this data live

The charts are a snapshot. The same price history answers per route, today:

Cheapest winter cities, with live routes and a verdict each: Dubrave Gornje (€17) · Charlestown (€21) · Milan (€28) · London (€28) · Palermo (€29) · Catania (€30) · Ibiza (€30) · Tirana (€30)

Method

Booking window. Same flight (route + departure date) observed at different lead times; per lead-time window the median observed fare of that flight, compared with the lowest window of the same flight. Flights kept if seen in at least 3 windows spanning at least 21 days. Sample: 56,350 flights on 13,282 routes, 686,679 fares.

Day of week. Each fare compared with the median fare of its route; the figure is the average gap per day of departure.

Winter cities. Median one-way fare to each city for departures from 2026-11-01, cities with enough fares and origins.

Fare Index. Chain-linked: each month, the median fare per route for departures in the next 60 days (routes with >=5 fares); the index moves by the median month-on-month change over routes present in both months. Closed months are frozen.

Fares are one-way economy prices observed by Piratefly's price tracker; they are not booking data. All data: JSON, booking windows, winter cities, monthly index. Please credit "Piratefly" with a link to this page. Daily index: Fare Index.