Piratefly

When to book flights: what 1,574,564 real fares say

We tracked the same flights at different times before departure, 2026-06-14 to 2026-10-06, across 52,968 routes. Updated 2026-10-06. Free to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).

Key findings

How much more you pay vs. the cheapest moment, by how early you book
Average premium over the same flight's lowest observed fare · 29,940 flights
0–3 days before departure: +41.7% average, +19.4% median (4339 flights) +41.7% 0–3d 4–7 days before departure: +37.2% average, +16.6% median (9883 flights) +37.2% 4–7d 1–2 weeks before departure: +30.4% average, +12.5% median (13686 flights) +30.4% 1–2w 2–3 weeks before departure: +23.8% average, +8.1% median (13032 flights) +23.8% 2–3w 3–4 weeks before departure: +19.4% average, +5.5% median (14986 flights) +19.4% 3–4w 1–1.5 months before departure: +18.3% average, +4.5% median (19295 flights) +18.3% 1–1.5m 1.5–2 months before departure: +22.2% average, +6.2% median (14258 flights) +22.2% 1.5–2m 2–3 months before departure: +30.4% average, +13% median (13451 flights) +30.4% 2–3m
Source: Piratefly flight price research · 1,574,564 fares observed 2026-06-14 → 2026-10-06 · CC BY 4.0

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Which departure day costs more
Fare vs. the median of the same route, by day of departure
Monday: 4.7% vs route median (2175 flights) +4.7% Mon Tuesday: 1.4% vs route median (2595 flights) +1.4% Tue Wednesday: 1.4% vs route median (2621 flights) +1.4% Wed Thursday: 4.7% vs route median (2344 flights) +4.7% Thu Friday: 11.8% vs route median (1849 flights) +11.8% Fri Saturday: 10% vs route median (1900 flights) +10% Sat Sunday: 10.9% vs route median (1719 flights) +10.9% Sun
Source: Piratefly flight price research · 1,574,564 fares observed 2026-06-14 → 2026-10-06 · CC BY 4.0

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Cheapest cities to fly to this winter
Median one-way fare, departures from 2026-11-01, 110 cities ranked
Lamezia Terme (Calabria) Lamezia Terme (Calabria), Italy: median €18, 10th percentile €15 (371 fares from 14 airports) €18 Tirana Tirana, Albania: median €19, 10th percentile €14 (1554 fares from 80 airports) €19 Edinburgh Edinburgh, United Kingdom: median €25, 10th percentile €19 (2977 fares from 63 airports) €25 Catania Catania, Italy: median €25, 10th percentile €16 (1372 fares from 62 airports) €25 London London, United Kingdom: median €26, 10th percentile €17 (11676 fares from 161 airports) €26 Asturias (Oviedo) Asturias (Oviedo), Spain: median €26, 10th percentile €18 (300 fares from 28 airports) €26 Milan Milan, Italy: median €27, 10th percentile €16 (22512 fares from 165 airports) €27 Turin Turin, Italy: median €27, 10th percentile €15 (1044 fares from 53 airports) €27 Valletta Valletta, Malta: median €27, 10th percentile €16 (1478 fares from 75 airports) €27 Bologna Bologna, Italy: median €28, 10th percentile €16 (925 fares from 80 airports) €28 Ibiza Ibiza, Spain: median €28, 10th percentile €14 (344 fares from 27 airports) €28 Skopje Skopje, North Macedonia: median €28, 10th percentile €13 (305 fares from 25 airports) €28
Source: Piratefly flight price research · 1,574,564 fares observed 2026-06-14 → 2026-10-06 · CC BY 4.0

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Piratefly Fare Index (monthly)
Chain-linked, 2026-08 = 100 · European flights, next 60 days
2026-08: index 100, median fare €106.5 (10546 routes) 100 2026-08 2026-09: index 96.9, median fare €101 (18911 routes) 96.9 2026-09 2026-10: index 97.4, median fare €92 (11903 routes), month in progress 97.4 2026-10*
Source: Piratefly flight price research · 1,574,564 fares observed 2026-06-14 → 2026-10-06 · CC BY 4.0

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Method

Booking window. Same flight (route + departure date) observed at different lead times; per lead-time window the median observed fare of that flight, compared with the lowest window of the same flight. Flights kept if seen in at least 3 windows spanning at least 21 days. Sample: 29,940 flights on 8,124 routes, 290,276 fares.

Day of week. Each fare compared with the median fare of its route; the figure is the average gap per day of departure.

Winter cities. Median one-way fare to each city for departures from 2026-11-01, cities with enough fares and origins.

Fare Index. Chain-linked: each month, the median fare per route for departures in the next 60 days (routes with >=5 fares); the index moves by the median month-on-month change over routes present in both months. Closed months are frozen.

Fares are one-way economy prices observed by Piratefly's price tracker; they are not booking data. All data: JSON, booking windows, winter cities, monthly index. Please credit "Piratefly" with a link to this page. Daily index: Fare Index.